Currency Risk Backtest
The 4% rule was built on US assets spent in US dollars. Hold the same dollar portfolio but spend in another currency, and the exchange rate quietly becomes part of the plan. Pick a currency and a withdrawal rate to see the gap, across real history from 1990 to 2025.
Methodology
- US 50/50 stock/bond portfolio, rebalanced annually (Shiller total returns).
- Withdrawals taken at the start of each year, grown by the spending country's inflation, then converted to dollars at that year's exchange rate.
- A maximum of 30 projection years.
- Years past the latest data are shaded; they have not happened yet.
- Malaysia pegged the ringgit to the dollar from 1998 to 2005.
- A backtest of one historical path, not a forward-looking simulation.
Sources: exchange rates and inflation from FRED; US asset returns from Robert Shiller.
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This is a backtest of one history. ActuaPlan runs thousands of possible futures, with the currency layer switched on, against your real spending split, retirement date, and pair.
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