CAPE & Withdrawal Rate Explorer
All toolsCAPE & withdrawal rates
34.0
4.0%
No completed cases match CAPE 31–37 for this horizon.
Lasted 30 yearsRan out earlyYour rateYour CAPE rangeSelect any dot to inspect it
Retiring in 1881, the hardest start in this range
Balance at your 4.0% rate
For this 1881 start at CAPE 18.5, the highest rate that lasted was 6.6%. Your 4.0% plan lasted all 30 years.
Assumptions and method
70/30 stocks/bonds
0.3%
Inflation-adjusted spending, annual rebalancing, start-of-year withdrawals, and no taxes.
Complete cohorts only: 30-year starts run through 1996. Overlapping starts are not independent trials.
Shiller U.S. market data through 2025. Educational only.
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