CAPE & Withdrawal Rate Explorer
All toolsCAPE & withdrawal rates
34.0
4.0%
No retirement starts at CAPE 31–37 have a full 30-year history.
Safe withdrawal rate
Lasted 30 yearsRan out earlyYour rateYour CAPE range
Retiring in 1881 — safe withdrawal rate: 6.6%
Balance at your 4.0% rate
For this 1881 start at CAPE 18.5, the highest rate that lasted was 6.6%. Your 4.0% plan lasted all 30 years.
Assumptions and method
70/30 stocks/bonds
0.3%
Inflation-adjusted spending, annual rebalancing, start-of-year withdrawals, and no taxes.
Complete cohorts only: 30-year starts run through 1996. Overlapping starts are not independent trials.
Shiller U.S. market data through 2025. Educational only.
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